A friend suggested that I share some of my process. These aren’t drafted and revised notes or commentaries, as you saw with my “What if No Watergate?” post. Instead, this is simply the raw notes as they come out of my head.
For some brief context, this is something I wrote down earlier today and is kind of a perfect encapsulation of how my process often begins: Reading. I stumble across something in a history book (often while researching for a different project) and something stands out and makes me ask: What if? And we go from there…
So please enjoy: Hart Attack
Hart Attack
Recently, upon reading Steve Gillon’s The Democrats’ Dilemma, I was shocked to learn that Walter Mondale very nearly dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Hart’s victory in New Hampshire had been such a blow and so totally altered the dynamics of the race, that Mondale and his team actually began working on a plan for a concession speech that evening to be followed by a trip to Minnesota where he’d drop out of the race. These talks continued as Hart’s success continued into Maine, which dealt Mondale a devastating blow given he felt its strong labor history should have been enough to carry him. It was not just the early losses but also the dramatic change in polling. Mondale’s pollster, Peter Hart, reported that Mondale (who had been up by 50-points over Hart) was now down 10-points.
This timeline begins with that point of divergence — Mondale, so totally deflated from his early defeats and seeing the writing on the wall — decides he should get out of the race early.
Two days after the NH Primary, Mondale assembled the campaign to assess the damage. He decides to continue through until Maine, and his defeat in Maine seals the deal. Walter Mondale decides it’s time to go home.
It would be hard to overstate the political earthquake this would produce. Hart would be seen as a dragon slayer and his victory would totally upend the race. While Glenn stays in through Super Tuesday (and as a result of No Mondale performs respectably enough), Hart sews up the nomination in no time. This would also frame Jackson’s campaign in a different light. With the nomination essentially decided, Jackson would instead remain on the ballot, collecting a respectable number of delegates, with the goal of influencing the platform.
Reagan’s campaign pollster, Dick Wirthlin, noted that Mondale’s messaging was starting to break through and damage Reagan until the Hart victories. Once Hart was a threat, Mondale doubled down on traditional Democratic messaging and furthered the perception his ideas were tired and his concern was for “special interests.” Hart, of course, would not have this problem. Wirthlin’s primary concern — that the Democrat would be seen as “offered Americans more for the future than Ronald Reagan” — comes to life in the Hart campaign.
Eventually the firestorm around Hart will start to simmer. Glowing media appearances. Magazine overshoots. Etc. The magnitude of Hart’s swift slaying of Mondale will give him something of an Obama celebrity effect. But that must come to life.
Potential landmines for Hart:
- His past — Mondale considered Hart for Veep and was near to choosing him until he learned that the press was going to resume existing investigations into Hart’s womanizing and alleged drug use
- Jackson — While Hart’s brand is about eschewing “special interests,” Jackson is in a unique place, and while he may play nice with Hart, it would require from Hart a delicate dance, which may be a tad out of character…
- Women’s groups — Hart is unlikely to ascribe to NOW’s pressure for a woman on the ticket, and while he will seriously vet some women candidates, he will need to do some kind of olive branch to avoid an outright floor fight at the Convention
Controlling for these landmines, it is conceivable that Hart (and Glenn at the bottom of the ticket?) emerge from San Francisco with a lead over Reagan. Mondale turned a 19-point deficit into a 2-point lead. Safe to assume Hart’s lead ITTL is at least 10-points immediately post Convention. The new ticket capitalizes on the energy, etc.
The race tightens considerably after the Republican Convention, but Hart remains very much in the race. Then, the candidates meet for their only debate… Mondale had asked Reagan for six debates, the president only agreed to two (after pushing for a single debate). Here, fearing Hart even more than they did Mondale, they agree to just one debate. It’s a disaster.
As per OTL, Reagan is rambling, looks dazed and confused, his answers are nonsensical and weak, etc, etc. The difference here is that at the end of the debate — after they’re already over schedule and the candidates are delivering their final statements — Reagan collapses mid sentence. (This is based on an observation from Mondale, according to Gillon’s book. Mondale recounted that Reagan looked very bad by the end of the debate and Mondale feared he was about to pass out.)
The poor debate and literal collapse underscore the biggest concern about Reagan: his fitness for the job. Without another debate to set the record straight (as they had IOTL), the Reagan campaign must adopt a different strategy. Leaving the hospital the next morning, Reagan delivers his “opponent’s youth and inexperience” line, but it falls flat. There is a very legitimate reason to be worried about the president’s health, and he appears to not be taking it seriously. Bush gets grilled on the question and puts his (silver) foot in his mouth (“Well, the president doesn’t do anything alone. He’s surrounded by smart men all the time who are with him while he makes these decisions.”) and only manages to further raise questions about Reagan’s health.
The White House’s response (a Rose Garden strategy) does the opposite of its intended effect. Instead of convincing people Reagan is capable of doing his job as president, it underscores a perception he is not up to the rigors of a campaign. Meanwhile, Hart is bouncing city-to-city for big rallies and doing local retail politicking that gets picked up on the evening news…
The result is a 300-238 victory for Hart over Reagan.
Note that this does not always follow this format. Sometimes the idea comes to me differently. For example, instead of a clear journey through a particular election, it might be a previously unknown belief of a presidential candidate that makes me wonder, What if they had won? And so I proceed along a path of imagining what their presidency might have looked like and then work backwards…
But in this particular case, the question is what if Mondale had done this act that seems so hard to imagine? Could it plausibly lead to stopping a Reagan second term? Of course, I wrote with that goal in mind, but things fell into place pretty easily.
Matters of Fact in Fiction 
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