Matters of Fact in Fiction

Tuesday, July 28 marked the 10th anniversary of Hillary Clinton accepting the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. It was the first time a major political party chose a woman to lead its presidential ticket, and it came 32 years after the Democrats’ first put a woman on the national ticket at all.

Clinton went on to lose the 2016 election to Donald Trump. Four years later, a different woman, Kamala Harris, was nominated for vice president, and she made history on January 20, 2021, when she became the first woman to serve as Vice President of the United States. In 2024, she suffered a similar fate as Clinton, losing the presidential election to Trump.

Perhaps the first woman president will be elected in 2028, or 2032… Perhaps the first woman president will ascend to the office via the vice presidency (as Gerald Ford once infamously predicted). Certainly, I hope to see a woman president in my lifetime. But while the American voter ponders who our first woman president will be, the alternate historian ponders who it might have been…

Of course, Hillary Clinton (both for her 2016 and 2008 campaigns) and Kamala Harris top the list. But here are five other women who may have been our first female president:

#7: Sarah Palin

It might be hard to imagine Sarah Palin behind the desk in the Oval Office, but given she is the only Republican woman nominated on the national ticket, I would be remiss not to include her on the list. Palin was chosen as a “game changer,” and she certainly shook up the dynamics of the 2008 race, rejuvenating the McCain campaign, reassuring Evangelicals that they could trust the nominee, and helping the Republican ticket experience its only favorable polling throughout the general election campaign. That bump was short-lived, however, and Palin soon became a drag on the ticket. 

McCain emerging victorious in the 2008 election is tough to maneuver, although it is theoretically possible. One popular scenario involves Senator Obama choosing a scandalized running mate, either John Edwards or Chris Dodd. The problem with such a point of divergence is that Edwards’ and Dodd’s scandals were both well-known throughout the course of the vice presidential vetting, and it seems unlikely either could have realistically been chosen. The other – more plausible – scenario involves delaying the 2008 economic meltdown. One possible way to achieve that would be having Warren Buffett agree to save Lehman Brothers in April of 2008. Had Buffett gone through with this, it may have been possible for the worst of the economic downturn to happen after Election Day 2008, giving McCain the chance to squeak out a narrow victory over Obama. 

Had McCain won the election, Palin would have been one heartbeat away from the presidency. Though McCain lived until 2018 in our timeline, who knows how he may have fared given the increased stress of the presidency… Or perhaps after serving as vice president from 2009-2013 (assuming a loss in 2012), Palin could have rehabilitated her national image, developed the support among donors and other establishment types, and gone on to become the Republicans’ nominee in 2016 or 2020.

Maybe she did not need to become vice president at all… It’s been reported that Steve Bannon, who helped engineer Trump’s 2016 victory, first had his eyes set on Palin. Though it’s hard to imagine she would have been as successful had she run instead of Trump, it’s undeniable that she kickstarted the populist strain in conservatism that Trump galvanized even further. 

Finally, have we considered that Palin’s rocky debut on the national stage was a result of the fact she had not been prepped? That it came about as the result of a rushed job by the McCain campaign? What if she hadn’t been chosen to be McCain’s running mate at all but instead stayed in Alaska and gradually prepared for her entry into the national conversation? It may have gone as poorly as Rick Perry’s campaign, but maybe an event like the BP Oil Spill would have given Palin an opening to present herself as a feisty conservative alternative to Obama in the 2012 election. 

#6: Ella Grasso

It makes sense that a list of potential first women presidents would include the first woman governor elected in her own right. Ella Grasso of Connecticut made that history in 1974. Her path to the presidency is narrow and highly contingent, but it exists.

In the 1976 Democratic primaries, Grasso endorsed Scoop Jackson, the Washington Senator, who was a serious contender. Had Hubert Humphrey more forcefully denounced a potential candidacy that year, Jackson would have enjoyed increased support from labor, which could have helped him clinch the nomination. His campaign also made some strategic blunders, like skipping the New Hampshire primary. Jackson is not the most obvious alternative nominee to Carter, but the path to victory is plausible.

Then, comes the question of who Jackson would name as his running mate. He did publicly float the idea of Grasso. One could dismiss it as home state flattery (he was campaigning in Connecticut when he said it), but perhaps Jackson was motivated to make history with his selection. Grasso, in addition to being the first woman on the ticket, would have also helped Jackson with ethnic white voters. 

Electing a Jackson/Grasso ticket is, of course, only half the assignment, but as morbid as it is to consider, the Seventies were rife with crazed men running around with guns. Look no further than Mark David Chapman or John Hinckley, Jr. for a potential assassin. My friend and frequent collaborator – Enigma on alternatehistory.com – imagined Sarah Jane Moore as the one holding the gun. He authored a pretty compelling write-up of a Grasso presidency.

Grasso was forced to resign as governor in our timeline in 1980, as her battle with cancer grew too consuming. She died just a couple of months later. 

#5: Geraldine Ferraro

Geraldine Ferraro made history in 1984, when she became the first woman nominated for president or vice president by a major political party. At the time, she was a three-term Congresswoman, and like Palin who came after her, Ferraro’s time on the national ticket was met with controversy. The candidate faced scrutiny of her and her husband’s tax returns – a scandal that also played to ethnic stereotypes given her family’s Italian background.

At the time she was chosen for the national ticket, Ferraro was preparing to run for the Senate in 1986 against incumbent Al D’Amato. She did not end up running for that seat until 1992, when she very narrowly lost the Democratic primary to Bob Abrams in a particularly nasty campaign that left Ferraro bruised and bitter. She later speculated that had she won the 1992 primary and general elections, she would have gone on to run for the presidency in 2000.

Ferraro, like Palin, may have benefitted from having not been chosen for the national ticket. It is easy to imagine that she could have won the ‘86 campaign against D’Amato, even though the nominee in our timeline performed poorly. Ferraro was beloved in national Democratic circles and would have had far more institutional support. She also had a demonstrated record of winning in a Republican-leaning Congressional district, and her appeal to ethnic white voters who made up most of the important “Reagan Democrats” voting bloc in the eighties, would have cut into D’Amato’s base of support.

Still, Ferraro would always have baggage to answer for. Her son’s drug problem and her husband’s tax problems dogged her throughout her campaigns, and it’s hard to imagine she could have avoided these scandals. 

#4: Clare Boothe Luce

If it weren’t for the fact that her career began in the 1940s, Clare Boothe Luce would rank even higher on this list. She was an intelligent spokeswoman for conservative causes, a skilled political strategist, and a woman whose experience spanned domestic and foreign affairs. A writer, she married publisher Henry Luce, and settled into life as a public intellectual – one of the nation’s leading thinkers on the right. She served just two terms in the U.S. House of Representatives before retiring in 1946. She considered a run for the Senate that year in Connecticut and then more seriously in 1964 in New York, when she would have faced off against incumbent Republican Kenneth Keating and Democrat Bobby Kennedy. Luce explored the possibility of running under the Conservative Party banner. (Imagine that campaign!) 

Perhaps her path to the White House did not require the Senate at all… Her diplomatic career during the Eisenhower years and her anti-Communist bona fides may have set her up for more extensive service had Nixon won the 1960 election. 

Luce died in 1987, at the age of 84, but her career presaged the conservative revolution within the Republican Party. By the time of Reagan’s election in 1980, she was too old to hold more senior positions, but had the conservatives taken a stronger hold of the party earlier on – or had she more vigorously pursued a Senate seat in the 40s, 50s, or 60s – she may have been able to ride the conservative wave to the White House.

#3: Phyllis Schlafly

There is a bit of irony to so prominently featuring a woman who said feminism was “doomed to failure” on a list of potential first woman presidents, but the idea that the country’s first woman president will fit the mold of a “conservative Iron Lady” is popular in political theory and has even been espoused by a former occupant of the office. 

Schlafly, the conservative firebrand, ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in 1952. If she had won that race, or won in 1960 or 1970 when she tried again, she may have been able to climb the ladder all the way to the Oval Office. She was an early leader in the conservative movement, serving as an Illinois delegate for Robert Taft that same year. 

For those who doubt that Schlafly could have pulled it off, consider the charisma and shrewd political instincts she displayed during the Stop ERA campaign of the Seventies. Schlafly faced much more organized support of the ERA through groups like the National Organization of Women (NOW), but she was able to orchestrate the defeat of the Amendment. When she began her efforts, 28 of the 38 states necessary had ratified the ERA. Schlafly led campaigns to block the ratification in enough states, and even got five states to rescind their support of the Amendment. 

In the end, the ERA fell three states shy of being enshrined into the constitution.

Like Luce, Schlafly would benefit from her conservative background at a time when that ideology was on the rise within the Republican ranks. She was a member of the John Birch Society and self-published a book, A Choice Not An Echo, that made the case for Goldwater’s election in 1964. Had she won a seat in the House (her 1970 defeat was the closest, losing 54%-46%), she may have been able to amass enough of a national profile to get to the Senate and run for the White House. Having been born in 1924, she would have been a viable presidential contender through the 1992 – or maybe even 1996 – election.

(Note: The aforementioned Enigma also wrote-up a potential Schlafly presidency. You can read it here. And for a dramatization of the Stop ERA fight, I highly recommend FX’s Mrs. America where Cate Blanchett plays an incredible Schlafly.)

#2: Jeanne Shaheen

Jeanne Shaheen is the first woman in American history to serve as both a governor and a U.S. Senator. She may also have become America’s first woman vice president. In 2000, Al Gore seriously considered her as his running mate. When asked recently about what might have been different if she’d been chosen, Shaheen answered confidently that Gore would have carried New Hampshire and therefore won the 2000 election. Her opinion is pretty widely shared by alternate historians and provides a fascinating What-if, especially given the profound consequences of the George W. Bush presidency.

But while the scenario is interesting for all the obvious reasons (how differently Gore may have handled 9/11 and the resulting War on Terror), it is also interesting to consider how it may have changed Shaheen’s career.

In our timeline, she is getting ready to leave Washington after eighteen years in the U.S. Senate. Passed over for the Gore ticket, Shaheen ran for the U.S. Senate in 2002 and lost to John Sununu. It was the first national election after 9/11, and Bush’s handling of the terrorist attack and the recent vote on Iraq dominated the campaign, allowing Republicans to defy historical precedent and make gains in the House and Senate. But six years later, Shaheen soundly defeated Sununu, who is now running to get his seat back in 2026.

Had she served four or eight years as vice president, Shaheen would have been a front runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. Had Gore won 2000 and 2004, it’s hard to envision Democrats winning a fifth consecutive term with Shaheen at the helm, but if he had lost reelection in 2004, Shaheen may have been in a position to win in either 2008 or 2012, becoming the country’s first woman president. (Of course, she would’ve had to overcome Hillary and her own ambitions!)

#1: Elizabeth Dole

Hillary Clinton is not the only political spouse to harbor White House ambitions. In fact, she wasn’t even the first. That distinction belongs to Elizabeth Dole, the former cabinet secretary, who was married to Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole. 

Elizabeth Dole (nee Hanford) began her career as a staffer in the administration of Lyndon B. Johnson but stayed to work in the Nixon administration after the 1968 election. She met Bob Dole in 1972, and the couple was married in 1975. Elizabeth went on to serve in the cabinet of presidents Reagan and Bush 41. 

She electrified the 1996 Republican National Convention when the party nominated her husband for the top job. Four years later, after having served as the President of the American Red Cross, Dole launched her own campaign for the White House. Dole initially enjoyed good polling numbers, the only candidate who was rivaling frontrunner George W. Bush, but her campaign was dogged by poor fundraising numbers and the fact that her husband seemed to raise doubts about her own candidacy. Bob helped further a perception that his wife was running for a spot on the bottom of the ticket.

But what if Dole had been successful in her bid? It would have taken a lot to overcome Dubya, but I’ve always imagined that if his DUI story broke right around the time of the Ames Straw Poll, it may have been enough for another candidate – possibly Dole – to capitalize on doubts about the frontrunner and pull off an upset. With some added momentum from a Straw Poll win, Dole may have been able to raise enough funds to stay in the race and emerge as the nominee. (Though we should acknowledge a different woman who won the Straw Poll did not have similar luck…)

Of course, there’s always the path of the vice presidency. Maybe if Dubya had chosen her, that could have gotten Dole to the Oval Office. Or maybe if Bob’s career had been timed differently, she could have had more success in her own. He was nominated for the vice presidency in 1976. Had the Ford/Dole ticket won that election, he’d have been the front runner for the 1980 Republican nomination. If he lost, Elizabeth would have been free to start her own journey in elected office much earlier… If he had won, Elizabeth would have had the platform of First Lady to endear herself to the American public and after four or eight years could have pursued an elected office just as Hillary Clinton did in our timeline. With a longer runway, it’s easy to imagine that Dole could have been more successful.

Honorable Mentions

• Amy Klobuchar – One of the breakout stars of the 2020 primary campaign was Klobuchar, who exceeded the expectations of most and ran as a credible candidate in the party’s centrist lane. Had Biden’s fundraising troubles driven him from the primary campaign ahead of Iowa, it’s plausible that Klobuchar could have taken his spot and emerged as the 2020 nominee.
• Ann Richards – Her 1988 convention address makes Richards a favorite of alternate historians just as it did political prognosticators in her time, but her path to the presidency was always in doubt. Richards’ alcoholism would always have been something she’d have to overcome in a national campaign, but had Poppy Bush been reelected in 1992, it’s plausible she’d have won in ‘94 and had a chance to run for the White House in ‘96.
• Eleanor Roosevelt – The hardest part about a President Eleanor Roosevelt is the timing, but given her diplomatic chops and her public stature as First Lady, she deserves a mention on the list. Her fervent support of civil rights would also have divided the Democratic Party on the issue even more extensively than OTL’s 1948 Convention…
• Pat Schroeder – A Colorado congresswoman, Schroeder ran a short-lived presidential campaign in 1988. It’s hard to envision that campaign having been successful, but she was a friend and confidant of Gary Hart, who ran serious campaigns for the presidency in ‘84 or ‘88. In the process, he may have elevated Schroeder’s standing enough to make her a viable candidate.
• Elizabeth Warren – Had Bernie Sanders not run in 2020, it seems quite plausible that Warren, who captured a mix of Sanders and Clinton 2016 voters, could have emerged as the Democratic nominee. Biden was able to win in a close election against Donald Trump, and there are arguments on both sides as to whether or not Warren could have matched (or exceeded) his performance.

You should also check out my friend Liv’s write-up of Martha Layne Collins, who Walter Mondale briefly considered for the 1984 ticket in our timeline. Like many of the women on this list, it is the scandals and actions of her spouse that get her into hot water… The chapter provides a fascinating look at some of the challenges unique to a woman in the White House.